Version2 emergent constraints

doc/sphinx/source/recipes/index.rst

@@ -33,6 +33,7 @@ Climate metrics and emergent constraints
 .. toctree::
    :maxdepth: 1
 
+   recipe_emergent_constraints
    recipe_cox18nature
    recipe_ecs
    recipe_perfmetrics

doc/sphinx/source/recipes/recipe_emergent_constraints.rst

@@ -0,0 +1,150 @@
+Emergent constraints for equilibrium climate sensitivity
+========================================================
+
+Overview
+--------
+
+Calculates equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) versus
+
+1) southern ITCZ index, similar to fig. 2 from Tian (2015)
+2) lower tropospheric mixing index (LTMI), similar to fig. 5 from Sherwood et al. (2014)
+3) tropical mid-tropospheric humidity asymmetry index, similar to fig. 4 from Tian (2015)
+4) covariance of shortwave cloud reflection (Brient and Schneider, 2016)
+5) climatological Hadley cell extent (Lipat et al., 2017)
+
+The results are displayed as scatterplots.
+
+.. note:: This recipe requires pre-calulation of the equilibrium climate
+  sensitivites (ECS) for all models. The ECS values are calculated
+  with recipe_ecs.yml. The netcdf file containing the ECS values
+  (path and filename) is specified by diag_script_info@ecs_file.
+  Alternatively, the netcdf file containing the ECS values can be
+  generated with the cdl-script
+  $diag_scripts/emergent_constraints/ecs_cmip.cdl (recommended method):
+
+  1) save script given at the end of this recipe as ecs_cmip.cdl
+  2) run command: ncgen -o ecs_cmip.nc ecs_cmip.cdl
+  3) copy ecs_cmip.nc to directory given by diag_script_info@ecs_file
+     (e.g. $diag_scripts/emergent_constraints/ecs_cmip.nc)
+
+
+Available recipes and diagnostics
+---------------------------------
+
+Recipes are stored in recipes/
+
+    * recipe_ecs_scatter.yml
+
+Diagnostics are stored in diag_scripts/emergent_constraints/
+
+    * ecs_scatter.ncl: calculate emergent constraints for ECS
+
+
+User settings in recipe
+-----------------------
+
+#. Script ecs_scatter.ncl
+
+   *Required settings (scripts)*
+
+   * diag: emergent constraint to calculate ("itczidx", "humidx", "ltmi",
+     "covrefl", "shhc")
+   * ecs_file: path and filename of netCDF containing precalculated
+     ECS values (see note above)
+
+   *Optional settings (scripts)*
+
+   * calcmm: calculate multi-model mean (True, False)
+   * legend_outside: plot legend outside of scatterplots (True, False)
+   * predef_minmax: use predefined internal min/max values for axes
+     (True, False)
+   * styleset: "CMIP5" (if not set, diagnostic will create a color table
+     and symbols for plotting)
+   * suffix: string to add to output filenames (e.g."cmip3")
+
+   *Required settings (variables)*
+
+   * reference_dataset: name of reference data set
+
+   *Optional settings (variables)*
+
+   none
+
+   *Color tables*
+
+   none
+
+
+Variables
+---------
+
+* pr (atmos, monthly mean, longitude latitude time)
+* hur (atmos, monthly mean, longitude latitude level time)
+* hus (atmos, monthly mean, longitude latitude level time)
+* rsdt (atmos, monthly mean, longitude latitude time)
+* rsut (atmos, monthly mean, longitude latitude time)
+* rsutcs (atmos, monthly mean, longitude latitude time)
+* ta (atmos, monthly mean, longitude latitude level time)
+* ts (atmos, monthly mean, longitude latitude time)
+* va (atmos, monthly mean, longitude latitude level time)
+* wap (atmos, monthly mean, longitude latitude level time)
+
+
+Observations and reformat scripts
+---------------------------------
+
+.. note:: (1) Obs4mips data can be used directly without any preprocessing.
+          (2) See headers of reformat scripts for non-obs4mips data for download instructions.
+
+* AIRS (obs4mips): hus, husStderr
+* CERES-EBAF (obs4mips): rsdt, rsut, rsutcs
+* ERA-Interim (OBS): hur, ta, va, wap
+* HadISST (OBS): ts
+* TRMM-L3 (obs4mips): pr, prStderr
+
+
+References
+----------
+
+* Brient, F., and T. Schneider, J. Climate, 29, 5821-5835, doi:10.1175/JCLIM-D-15-0897.1, 2016.
+* Lipat et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 5739-5748, doi:10.1002/2017GL73151, 2017.
+* Sherwood et al., nature, 505, 37-42, doi:10.1038/nature12829, 2014.
+* Tian, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 4133-4141, doi:10.1002/2015GL064119, 2015.
+
+Example plots
+-------------
+
+.. _fig_ec_ecs_1:
+.. figure::  /recipes/figures/emergent_constraints/ltmi.png
+   :align:   center
+
+   Lower tropospheric mixing index (LTMI; Sherwood et al., 2014) vs.
+   equilibrium climate sensitivity from CMIP5 models.
+
+.. _fig_ec_ecs_2:
+.. figure::  /recipes/figures/emergent_constraints/shhc.png
+   :align:   center
+
+   Climatological Hadley cell extent (Lipat et al., 2017) vs.
+   equilibrium climate sensitivity from CMIP5 models.
+
+.. _fig_ec_ecs_3:
+.. figure::  /recipes/figures/emergent_constraints/humidx.png
+   :align:   center
+
+   Tropical mid-tropospheric humidity asymmetry index (Tian, 2015) vs.
+   equilibrium climate sensitivity from CMIP5 models.
+
+.. _fig_ec_ecs_4:
+.. figure::  /recipes/figures/emergent_constraints/itczidx.png
+   :align:   center
+
+   Southern ITCZ index (Tian, 2015) vs.
+   equilibrium climate sensitivity from CMIP5 models.
+
+.. _fig_ec_ecs_5:
+.. figure::  /recipes/figures/emergent_constraints/covrefl.png
+   :align:   center
+
+   Covariance of shortwave cloud reflection (Brient and Schneider, 2016) vs.
+   equilibrium climate sensitivity from CMIP5 models.

esmvaltool/config-references.yml

@@ -579,6 +579,7 @@ references:
   bakker14essd: "Bakker, D. C. E. et al., Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 6, 69-90, doi:10.5194/essd-6-69-2014, 2014."
   baldwin09qjrms: "Baldwin, D. P. et al., Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc., 135, 1661-1672, doi:10.1002/qj.479, 2009"
   bianchi12gbc: "Bianchi, D. et al., Global Biogeochem. Cy., 26, GB2009, doi:10.1029/2011GB004209, 2012."
+  brient16jclim: "Brient, F., and T. Schneider, J. Climate, 29, 5821-5835, doi:10.1175/JCLIM-D-15-0897.1, 2016."
   cionni11acp: "Cionni et al., Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 11267-11292, doi:10.5194/acp-11-11267-2011, 2011."
   clivar09jclim: "CLIVAR Madden-Julian Oscillation Working Group, J. Climate, 22, 3006-3030, doi:10.1175/2008JCLI2731.1, 2009."
   collins13ipcc: "Collins, M. et al., Long-term climate change: Projections, Commitments, and Irreversibility, in: Climate Change 2013: the Physical Science Basis, contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by: Stocker, T. F., Qin, D., Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S. K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A., Xia, Y., Bex, V., and Midgley, P. M., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA (2013)."
@@ -617,6 +618,7 @@ references:
   li14jclim: "Li and Xie, J. Climate, 27, 1765-1780, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00337.1, 2014."
   li17natcc: "Li, G., S.-P. Xie, C. He, and Z. Chen, Nat Clim Change, 7, 708, doi:10.1038/nclimate3387, 2017."
   lin08jclim: "Lin, J-L. et al., J. Climate, 21, 4541-4567, doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI1816.1, 2008."
+  lipat17grl: "Lipat et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 5739-5748, doi:10.1002/2017GL73151, 2017."
   lloyd-hughes02jclim: "Lloyd-Hughes, B. and Saunders, M. A., Int. J. Climatol., 22, 1571-1592, doi:10.1002/joc.846, 2002."
   locarini10usgov: "Locarnini, R. A. et al., World Ocean Atlas 2009, Volume 1: Temperature. S. Levitus, Ed. NOAA Atlas NESDIS 68, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., 184 pp.,2010."
   lucarini14revgeop: "Lucarini et al., Rev. Geophys., 52, 809-859, doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/2013RG000446"
@@ -632,15 +634,17 @@ references:
   rk2008bams: "Reichler and Kim, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 89, 303-312, doi:10.1175/BAMS-89-3-303, 2008."
   roedenbeck13os: "Roedenbeck, C. et al., Ocean Sci., 9, 193-216, doi:10.5194/os-9-193-2013, 2013."
   roehrig13jclim: "Roehrig, R. et al., J. Climate, 26, 6471-6505, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00505.1, 2013."
+  sherwood14nat: "Sherwood et al., nature, 505, 37-42, doi:10.1038/nature12829, 2014."
   sillman13jgr: "Sillmann et al., J. Geophys. Res., doi:10.1029/2012JD018390, 2013"
   sperber12asl: "Sperber and Kim, Atmos. Sci. Lett., 13, 3, 187-193, doi:10.1002/asl.378, 2012."
   straus07jcli: "Straus, D.M., S. Corti, and F. Molteni. J. Climate, 20, 2251-2272, doi:10.1175/JCLI4070.1, 2007"
   sutanudjaja2018gmd: "Sutanudjaja, E. H. et al., Geosci. Model Dev., 11, 2429-2453, doi:10.5194/gmd-11-2429-2018, 2018."
   stroeve07grl: "Stroeve, J. et al., Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L09501, doi:10.1029/2007GL029703, 2007."
-  tibaldi90tel: "Tibaldi S. and Molteni F. Tellus A 42(3): 343-365, doi:10.1034/j.1600-0870.1990.t01-2-00003.x, 1990."
   taylor12: "Taylor et al., Nature, 489, 423-426, doi:10.1038/nature11377, 2012."
   terzago18nhess: "Terzago, S. et al., Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 18, 2825-2840, doi:10.5194/nhess-18-2825-2018, 2018."
   takahashi14marchem: "Takahashi et al., Mar. Chem., 164, 95-125, doi:10.1016/j.marchem.2014.06.004, 2014."
+  tian15grl: "Tian, Geophys. Res. Lett., 42, 4133-4141, doi:10.1002/2015GL064119, 2015."
+  tibaldi90tel: "Tibaldi S. and Molteni F. Tellus A 42(3): 343-365, doi:10.1034/j.1600-0870.1990.t01-2-00003.x, 1990."
   vicente10jclim: "Vicente-Serrano, S. M. and Beguera, S. and Lopez-Moreno, J. I., Journal of climate, 23(7), 1696-1718, 10.1175/2009JCLI2909.1, 2010"
   wang99bams: "Wang, B. and Z. Fan, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 80, 629-638, doi:10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<0629:COSASM>2.0.CO;2, 1999."
   wang11climdyn: "Wang, B. et al., Clim. Dyn., 39, 1123-1135, doi:10.1007/s00382-011-1266-z, 2011."

esmvaltool/diag_scripts/emergent_constraints/ecs_cmip.cdl

@@ -0,0 +1,52 @@
+netcdf ECS {
+
+dimensions:
+
+model = 74, mchar = 17 ;
+
+variables:
+
+float ecs(model);
+char model(model, mchar);
+
+// variable attributes
+
+ecs:long_name = "Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity" ;
+ecs:standard_name = "ECS" ;
+ecs:units = "K" ;
+ecs:_FillValue = -999. ;
+
+model:named_coordinate = 1 ;
+
+:reference1_cmip3 = "Sherwood, S. C., S. Bony, J.-L. Dufresne: Spread in model climate sensitivity traced to atmospheric convective mixing, Nature, 505, 37-42, doi:10.1038/nature12829, 2014" ;
+: reference2_cmip3 = "IPCC AR4, table 8.2" ;
+: reference_cmip5 = "IPCC AR5" ;
+: reference_cmip6 = "ESMValTool v2.0.0b2 (recipe_ecs.yml)" ;
+
+data:
+
+model = "ACCESS1-0", "ACCESS1-3", "bcc-csm1-1", "bcc-csm1-1-m", "BNU-ESM", "CanESM2",
+        "CCSM4", "CESM1-BGC", "CESM1-CAM5", "CESM1-WACCM", "CMCC-CESM", "CMCC-CM",
+        "CMCC-CMS", "CNRM-CM5", "CSIRO-Mk3-6-0", "FGOALS-g2", "FIO-ESM", "GFDL-CM3",
+        "GFDL-ESM2G", "GFDL-ESM2M", "GISS-E2-H", "GISS-E2-R", "HadGEM2-AO",
+        "HadGEM2-CC", "HadGEM2-ES", "inmcm4", "IPSL-CM5A-LR", "IPSL-CM5A-MR",
+        "IPSL-CM5B-LR", "MIROC-ESM", "MIROC-ESM-CHEM", "MIROC5", "MPI-ESM-LR",
+        "MPI-ESM-MR", "MRI-CGCM3", "NorESM1-M", "NorESM1-ME",
+        "bccr_bcm2_0", "cccma_cgcm3_1", "cccma_cgcm3_1_t63", "cnrm_cm3",
+        "csiro_mk3_0", "csiro_mk3_5", "gfdl_cm2_0", "gfdl_cm2_1", "giss_aom",
+        "giss_model_e_h", "giss_model_e_r", "iap_fgoals1_0_g", "ingv_echam4",
+        "inmcm3_0", "ipsl_cm4", "miroc3_2_hires", "miroc3_2_medres",
+        "mpi_echam5", "mri_cgcm2_3_2a", "ncar_ccsm3_0", "ncar_pcm1",
+        "ukmo_hadcm3", "ukmo_hadgem1",
+        "BCC-CSM2-MR", "BCC-ESM1", "CAMS-CSM1-0", "CESM2", "CESM2-WACCM", "CNRM-CM6-1",
+        "CNRM-ESM2-1", "GFDL-CM4", "GISS-E2-1-G", "GISS-E2-1-H", "IPSL-CM6A-LR",
+        "MIROC6", "MPI-ESM1-2-HR", "MRI-ESM2-0" ;
+
+
+ecs = 3.8, -999., 2.8, 2.9, 4.1, 3.7, 2.9, -999., -999., -999., -999., -999., -999., 3.3,
+      4.1, -999., -999., 4, 2.4, 2.4, 2.3, 2.1, -999., -999., 4.6, 2.1, 4.1, -999., 2.6,
+      4.7, -999., 2.7, 3.6, -999., 2.6, 2.8, -999.,
+      -999., 3.4, 3.4, -999., 3.1, -999., 2.9, 3.4, -999., 2.7, 2.7, 2.3, -999., 2.1,
+       4.4, 4.3, 4.0, 3.4, 3.2, 2.7, 2.1, 3.3, 4.4,
+      3.04, 3.26, 2.31, 6.29, 4.75, 4.83, 4.76, 3.87, 2.72, 3.11, 4.55, 2.61, 2.98, 3.15 ;
+}