Repository for the FACYnation project.
We present a model that can be used to understand the impace of climate variation on crop yields. In notebook 3_Overview.ipynb we give an overview of the model as applied to Maize in the US.
This repository is a fork of Peter Hurley's notebooks from the hack day conducted on October 17-18 2018 where we investigated the use of Bayesian inference to the problem of forecasting crop yields. This was part organised by data consultancy DataJavelin.
Notebooks:
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1_Exploratory_analysis.ipynb Peter Hurley gives an overview of the data present.
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3_Overview.ipynb Raphael Shirley summarises the previous notebooks by Peter Hurley and implements a two dimensional Gaussian model.
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4_Bayesian_MSM_SD2.ipynb Steven freely fits the variance and shows aggreement with an assumed value.
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5_Growth_curve_fitting.ipynb Peter implements a one dimensional Gaussian model.
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6_Warming_impact.ipynb Investigating impact of temperature increases on fitted two dimensional Gaussian model.
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7_mean_yield_anoms.ipynb Rerunning the model with mean anomalies.
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8_mean_yield_fracs.ipynb Rerunning with mean fractional anomalies.
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Sanchez 2014 Temperatures and the growth and development of maizeand rice: a review
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The FAO website (click on crop description and climate; http://www.fao.org/land-water/databases-and-software/crop-information/maize/en/) shows the different growth phases.