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library(EpiNow2) | ||
library(tictoc) | ||
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# get example case counts | ||
reported_cases <- example_confirmed[1:60] | ||
snapshot_cases <- example_confirmed[81:140] | ||
bp_cases <- data.table::copy(reported_cases) | ||
bp_cases <- bp_cases[, breakpoint := ifelse(date == as.Date("2020-03-16"), 1, 0)] | ||
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||
# set generation time | ||
gt <- list( | ||
fixed = generation_time_opts( | ||
disease = "SARS-CoV-2", source = "ganyani", fixed = TRUE | ||
), | ||
var = generation_time_opts( | ||
disease = "SARS-CoV-2", source = "ganyani" | ||
), | ||
ar1 = generation_time_opts() | ||
) | ||
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||
# set delays between infection and case report | ||
incubation_period <- get_incubation_period( | ||
disease = "SARS-CoV-2", source = "lauer" | ||
) | ||
reporting_delay <- list( | ||
mean = convert_to_logmean(2, 1), mean_sd = 0.1, | ||
sd = convert_to_logsd(2, 1), sd_sd = 0.1, max = 10 | ||
) | ||
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||
delays <- list( | ||
var = delay_opts(incubation_period, reporting_delay), | ||
fixed = delay_opts(incubation_period, reporting_delay, fixed = TRUE), | ||
none = delay_opts() | ||
) | ||
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||
trunc_dist <- trunc_opts( | ||
mean = convert_to_logmean(0.5, 0.5), mean_sd = 0.1, | ||
sd = convert_to_logsd(0.5, 0.5), sd_sd = 0.1, | ||
max = 3 | ||
) | ||
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||
default_options <- list( | ||
stan = stan_opts(chains = 1, warmup = 100, samples = 400, | ||
control = list(adapt_delta = 0.95)) | ||
) | ||
|
||
test_scenarios <- list( | ||
default = list( | ||
reported_cases, | ||
rt = rt_opts(prior = list(mean = 2, sd = 0.1)) | ||
), | ||
approximate_gp = list( | ||
reported_cases, | ||
rt = rt_opts(prior = list(mean = 2, sd = 0.1)), | ||
gp = gp_opts(ls_min = 10, basis_prop = 0.1) | ||
), | ||
susceptible_depletion = list( | ||
reported_cases, | ||
rt = rt_opts( | ||
prior = list(mean = 2, sd = 0.1), | ||
pop = 1000000, future = "latest" | ||
) | ||
), | ||
truncation = list( | ||
reported_cases, | ||
truncation = trunc_dist, | ||
rt = rt_opts(prior = list(mean = 2, sd = 0.1)) | ||
), | ||
backcalc = list( | ||
reported_cases, | ||
rt = NULL, | ||
backcalc = backcalc_opts(), | ||
obs = obs_opts(scale = list(mean = 0.4, sd = 0.05)), | ||
horizon = 0 | ||
), | ||
later_snapshot = list( | ||
snapshot_cases, | ||
rt = rt_opts(prior = list(mean = 2, sd = 0.1)) | ||
), | ||
stationary_rt = list( | ||
reported_cases, | ||
rt = rt_opts(prior = list(mean = 2, sd = 0.1), gp_on = "R0") | ||
), | ||
fixed_rt = list( | ||
reported_cases, | ||
rt = rt_opts(prior = list(mean = 2, sd = 0.1)), | ||
gp = NULL | ||
), | ||
breakpoints_only = list( | ||
bp_cases, | ||
rt = rt_opts(prior = list(mean = 2, sd = 0.1)), | ||
gp = NULL | ||
), | ||
random_walk = list( | ||
rt = rt_opts(prior = list(mean = 2, sd = 0.1), rw = 7), | ||
gp = NULL | ||
) | ||
) | ||
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||
rep <- 5 | ||
|
||
scenarios <- list() | ||
timings <- list() | ||
for (gt_scenario in names(gt)) { | ||
scenarios[[gt_scenario]] <- list() | ||
gt_options <- gt[[gt_scenario]] | ||
for (delay_sceanrio in names(delays)) { | ||
scenarios[[gt_scenario]][[delay_scenario]] <- list() | ||
delay_options <- delays[[gt_scenario]] | ||
for (test_secnario in names(test_scenarios)) { | ||
test_options <- test_scenarios[[test_scenario]] | ||
exec_times <- c() | ||
for (run in seq_len(rep)) { | ||
tic() | ||
scenarios[[gt_scenario]][[delay_scenario]][[test_scenario]] <- | ||
do.call(estimate_infections, | ||
c(list(generation_time = gt_options), | ||
list(delays = delay_options), | ||
test_options, | ||
default_options)) | ||
run_time <- toc() | ||
exec_times[run] <- run_time$toc - run_time$tic | ||
} | ||
scenarios[[gt_scenario]][[delay_scenario]][[test_scenario]]$exec_times <- | ||
exec_times | ||
} | ||
} | ||
} |