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Tropical system outlooks

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Ajda Savarin edited this page Sep 11, 2023 · 10 revisions 
./bash/process_nhc_outlook_areas.sh

OR

python ../scripts/download_atcf_hurricane_data.py
python ../scripts/process_atcf_hurricane_data.py

python ../scripts/download_atcf_current_systems_data.py
python ../scripts/process_atcf_current_systems_data.py

python ../scripts/download_latest_saildrone_data.py
python ../scripts/plot_nhc_outlook_areas.py
python ../scripts/create_nhc_outlook_areas_pdf_summary.py

In order for things to run as expected, you will also need to set some switches in ./configs/config.yml

**1. Downloading historic NHC data from ATCF and preprocessing wind radii defaults **:

  • 1.1: download_nhc_atcf_data: False
  • 1.2: download_nhc_atcf_data_path: data/hurricane_forecasts
  • 1.3: atcf_start_year: 2002
  • 1.4: atcf_end_year: 2023
  • 1.5: preprocess_atcf_wind_radii: False

This step will run whenever 1.1 is set to True, but not if it is set to False. It will download the historical best track data from years 1.3 to 1.4 and store it in 1.2. The reason the default years were chosen is because the wind radii data has been quality controlled in this time range. Before 2002, the wind radii data is very difficult to work with and inconsistent. The wind radii preprocessing will run if 1.5 is set to True.

This step also only needs to be run once, since it is looking at the historical record.

2. Downloading NHC best track and forecast for current storm systems in the Atlantic defaults:

  • 2.1: download_nhc_invest_data: True
  • 2.2: download_nhc_storm_data: True
  • 2.3: download_nhc_btk_data: True
  • 2.4: download_nhc_invest_data_path: data/hurricane_forecasts/invest
  • 2.5: download_nhc_storm_data_path: data/hurricane_forecasts/storm
  • 2.6: download_nhc_btk_data_path: data/hurricane_forecasts/best_track

This step is fast and only looks at the latest systems. Depending on how switches are set, it will download invest data (pre-storm, if 2.1 is True), storm forecast data (once a storm is designated, if 2.2 is True), and the storm best track data (if 2.3 is True). The data will be stored in directories 2.4, 2.5, and 2.6, respectively.

3. Saildrone data download defaults:

  • 3.1: download_saildrone_data: True
  • 3.2: download_saildrone_data_path: data/saildrone
  • 3.3: all_saildrones: 1031, 1036, 1040, 1041, 1042, 1045, 1057, 1064, 1065, 1068, 1069, 1083
  • 3.4: update_saildrones: 1031, 1036, 1040, 1041, 1042, 1045, 1057, 1064, 1065, 1068, 1069, 1083

This step will run whenever 3.1 is set to True, but not if it is set to False. It will download all the saildrones listed in 3.4 to the directory specified in 3.2. You should always have at least two saildrones listed in 3.4 - the process is very fast.

A note of caution -- the data is downloaded from the public NOAA PMEL ERDDAP, so it is updated only every 30 minutes or so, and it provides the data at the frequency it is displayed on the Saildrone Portal. If in real-time, the data contains gaps, those gaps will not be filled in with later downloads.

4. Plotting NHC outlook and forecast areas defaults:

  • 4.1: download_nhc_outlook_data_path: data/hurricane_forecasts/outlooks
  • 4.2: outlook_figure_path: nhc_outlook

This section will download the GIS files for outlooks, and combine them with previous sections to make all the figures that go into the outlook PDF. The default parameters just specify where the data and figures will get stored.

5. Creating the PDF summary defaults:

  • 5.1: summary_outlook_figure_path: latest
  • 5.2: summary_pdf_path: nhc_outlook_summary
  • 5.3: document_author: Ajda Savarin
  • 5.4: summary_figure_colorbar: configs/colorbar.png
  • 5.5: clean_up_data_and_figures: True

This section narrates how the PDF gets compiled (with use of ImageMagick and PDFLatex). 5.1 narrates where the final processed images will be located - these will not get erased until you run the whole process again. 5.2 narrates where the final PDF will be located - the name of the fill will correspond to the time of the latest issued outlooks by NHC. 5.3 will update the author on the PDF, 5.4 points to the image colorbar (this is static so it is identical for all figures). 5.5 determines whether the data for current systems, forecasts, and images get erased at the end. It is best to keep this one as True, otherwise previous systems' might bleed into the latest outlook.

Example output: Full PDF

The final result will include three sections:

  • current outlooks, storm best tracks and forecasts, plus latest saildrone positions (on map and in text coordinates)
  • for each active system (invest or storm), a slide including a map with best track and forecasted tracks for a set of models, and an intensity time series)
  • for each outlook area, a map showing the density of 34-kt winds for all storms that initiated in that outlook area; there is a cumulative map, as well as a clickable animation (at the end), which you can access when opening the PDF in Adobe Acrobat Reader. The animation will progress one day at a time, so you can see how many days in advance storms produced 34-kt winds at a given location.

Ajda Savarin

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