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Handle cases with more than 1 winner #14

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mberk opened this issue Jan 5, 2025 · 1 comment
Open

Handle cases with more than 1 winner #14

mberk opened this issue Jan 5, 2025 · 1 comment
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@mberk

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@mberk
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mberk commented Jan 5, 2025

Currently we assume that the implied probabilities sum to 1 but there are cases where they should sum to 2 or more. For example, a market betting on which horses will finish in the top three places in a race
@mberk mberk self-assigned this Jan 5, 2025
@MikeRand
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Theoretically, wouldn't you'd need complete markets to make sure that the (now linear combinations of Arrow-Debreu) bets don't allow for arbitrage among them? For example, you could probably apply this new modified Shin to solve a podium top 3 bet if you simultaneously solved the win, 2nd, and top 3 bets.

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@mberk @MikeRand