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DESCRIPTION
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Package: stackr
Title: Create Mixture Models From Predictive Samples
Version: 0.1.0
Authors@R:
c(person(given = "Nikos",
family = "Bosse",
role = c("aut", "cre"),
email = "[email protected]",
comment = c(ORCID = "0000-0002-7750-5280")),
person(given = "Yuling",
family = "Yao",
role = c("aut"),
email = "[email protected]"),
person(given = "Sam",
family = "Abbott",
role = c("aut"),
email = "[email protected]",
comment = c(ORCID = "0000-0001-8057-8037")),
person(given = "Sebastian",
family = "Funk",
role = c("aut"),
email = "[email protected]",
comment = c(ORCID = "0000-0002-2842-3406")))
Description:
The `stackr` package provides an easy way to combine predictions
from individual time series or panel data models to an
ensemble. `stackr` stacks (Yuling Yao, Aki Vehtari, Daniel Simpson,
and Andrew Gelman (2018) <doi:10.1214/17-BA1091>)
Models according to the Continuous Ranked
Probability Score (CRPS) (Tilmann Gneiting & Adrian E Raftery (2007)
<doi:10.1198/016214506000001437>) over k-step ahead predictions. It is therefore
especially suited for timeseries and panel data. A function for
leave-one-out CRPS may be added in the future. Predictions need to be
predictive distributions represented by predictive samples. Usually, these will
be sets of posterior predictive simulation draws generated by an MCMC
algorithm.
Given some training data with true observed values as well as predictive samples
generated from different models, `crps_weights` finds the optimal (in the sense of
minimizing expected cross-validation predictive error) weights
to form an ensemble from these models. Using these weights,
`mixture_from_samples` can then provide samples from the optimal
model mixture by drawing from the predictice samples
of the individual models in the correct proportion. This gives a mixture model
solely based on predictive samples and is in this regard superior to other
ensembling techniques like Bayesian Model Averaging.
License: MIT + file LICENSE
Encoding: UTF-8
LazyData: true
Biarch: true
Depends:
R (>= 3.5.0)
Imports:
data.table,
methods,
Rcpp (>= 0.12.0),
RcppParallel (>= 5.0.1),
rstan (>= 2.18.1),
rstantools (>= 2.4.0)
LinkingTo:
BH (>= 1.66.0),
Rcpp (>= 0.12.0),
RcppEigen (>= 0.3.3.3.0),
RcppParallel (>= 5.0.1),
rstan (>= 2.18.1),
StanHeaders (>= 2.18.0)
SystemRequirements: GNU make
RoxygenNote: 7.3.2
Suggests:
knitr,
rmarkdown,
testthat (>= 3.0.0),
scoringutils
VignetteBuilder: knitr
Config/testthat/edition: 3